FACTS + FIGURES — Car design and metals

More than 30 million passenger cars were produced in North America, Japan and Western Europe in 1993, and more than 360 million cars were in use. The automobile industry is a large-scale consumer of aluminum, copper, lead, nickel and zinc, accounting for 12%, 8%, 32%, 10% and 13%, respectively, of total demand for these metals in the above regions in 1993.

Developments in the design of cars and choice of materials over the next decade will have a major impact on the consumption of base metals in per-unit and tonnage terms by car manufactures in the Western World.

The combination of increasing car production, continuing growth in the number of cars in use and higher consumption of non-ferrous metals in each car translates into a general growth in demand for base metals by the Western World’s auto industry during the 1990s. After the turn of the century, aluminum, lead and nickel consumption will rise, with the use of both copper and zinc declining markedly.

Aluminum currently has the highest consumption level in the car industry (at 68 kg per car), and by far the greatest potential for future demand growth in unit and absolute terms. Aluminum unit use is forecast to advance. This increase reflects the metal’s unique combination of physical and mechanical properties, making it the material of choice in a wide variety of applications.

Particular areas of growth will be in wheels, body panels, suspension components and engine blocks. Spurred by the requirement for lower emissions and the future enactment of fuel consumption legislation, manufacturers will increasingly apply aluminum to body panels and, to a lesser degree, to body structures.

The consumption of copper during the past two decades has been characterized by both setbacks and encouragement. A major loss of market has been the replacement of copper-brass heat-exchangers by aluminum units. During the 1990s, the reduction in the use of copper (brought about, for example, by the use of multiple wiring systems and greater aluminum penetration in the heat exchanger sector) will be only partially offset by further growth in electrically powered extras, such as sun roofs, windows, door locks, etc. As a result, unit use is forecast to decline. The principal use of lead will continue to be in batteries. Lead consumption is particularly dependent on the number of cars in use, and a marginal increase in average battery size is forecast because of the increasing content of electrically powered extras.

Lead is not expected to benefit from the move to electric or electric-hybrid cars. Lead unit use is forecast to decline marginally.

Nickel consumption has been largely determined by its use as an alloying element in various types of steel and in nickel-chrome coatings. Future use, however, will rely more upon the metal’s role as an alloying addition, particularly in stainless steel used for exhaust systems and in turbochargers. The move to lighter cars with smaller engines will result in lower average nickel use.

Past use of zinc in the car industry has been dominated by die-castings, but little growth in this end use is forecast during the 1990s. The major applications for zinc are in zinc oxide in tires, followed by die castings and then coatings. While zinc use in coatings has advanced dramatically during the past 10 years, the greater application of aluminum and plastic panels will reduce the requirement for coated steel sheet.

In the longer term, there are no real growth markets for zinc. The best prospect is its use in tires, which will decline only marginally over the next few years. Zinc unit use is forecast to fall.

— From a report by Brook Hunt & Associates Ltd., Woburn House, 45 High St., Addlestone, Surrey KT15 1TU, U.K.