Energy, economy and Kyoto subject of forum at MM2000

Speakers at a recent forum in Toronto titled “Energy, the Economy and Kyoto” expressed little confidence that Canada would be able to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 6% below 1990 levels before 2012 (a view shared by delegates in a poll).

The 6% commitment was made in 1997 when Canada signed the Kyoto Protocol, an initiative aimed at combating global warming believed to be partly triggered by man-made emissions.

Despite the lack of progress, the forum’s moderator, Elaine McCoy, president of the Macleod Institute for Environmental Analysis at the University of Calgary, predicted that more pressure will be placed on Canada to develop a response to climate change. Because consumption, not production, drives emissions, she said, the public will likely bear the brunt of efforts to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

“Climate change is arguably the biggest economic and environmental issue facing Canadians,” she warned delegates. “You are going to be assigned k-rations. The question is how will these k-rations be assigned. Will they be voluntary or mandatory, transparent or hidden? Will they based on an incentive or a disincentive system?”

Some insight into the complexities of the debate was provided by panelist David McGuinty, CEO of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy. To set the stage, he acknowledged that many issues essential to determining response strategies remain unresolved. “There were many things left undone at Kyoto.”

The areas of uncertainty and contention even include the debate over science, including the role of the oceans and carbon sinks. Moreover, the U.S. is unlikely to ratify Kyoto, casting further doubt on its effectiveness.

As it stands, most countries will have trouble meeting their emission targets, McGuinty said. Most have not developed response strategies either, which means implementation programs will be delayed. “It’s not looking good for the process.”

On a more positive note, he said some major oil companies and businesses have already started to implement emissions trading programs and other marketplace mechanisms, while others are finding business opportunities related to new technologies. “Robust markets for emission trading are going to be essential.”

Still, McGuinty said engaging the public in the debate will be difficult. “There is a massive knowledge gap. Only 1% of Canadians think climate change is important, down from 2% [in a previous poll]. Most Canadians are more concerned about toxic pollutants.”

Denis Gaspe, vice-president of corporate planning and development for Fording Coal, told delegates that while coal is seen as “an easy target” for reducing emissions, “people don’t realize they are the problem as well.” Coal is an abundant, cheap energy source that is here to stay, he said. “The challenge is to improve its environmental performance.”

Toward that end, the coal industry is engaged in various research initiatives, including: a zero-emission coal project that so far has produced “promising, early results”; gasification of coal; the production of hydrogen from coal; and C02 capture and sequestration.

David MacInnis, vice-president of public affairs for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), provided an oilpatch perspective on climate change. He said the time frame and size of reductions would be “excessively costly” to Canada, the U.S. and others, which means Kyoto is not likely to be implemented. Even so, he predicted industrialized countries will take at least some action to constrain greenhouse gas emissions. Near-term objectives should include: strategic research and development; voluntary actions; public education and outreach; and development of more efficient technologies.

MacInnis also made the point that driving production offshore will not lower greenhouse gas emissions, a view that is widely shared by the business community.

The forum was part of the recent Mining Millenium 2000 conference, sponsored jointly by the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada and the Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy and Petroleum.