FACTS `N’ FIGURES — Silver forecast rosy

World silver production will increase over the next four years in North and South America, as well as Australia. These increases will help bridge the gap between mine supply and silver demand, which has risen rapidly in the past decade.

Global production had been declining steadily in recent years, to 443.7 million oz. in 1994 from 520.1 million oz. in 1990. However, it recovered somewhat in 1995 to 468.4 million oz. and is forecast to reach 541.4 million oz. by 1999, according to World Production Silver Forecast 1996-1999, a publication of the Washington, D.C.-based Silver Institute.

The expected increase is attributed to the recent rise in the silver price, which is leading to more mine openings. Another factor is the rise in output from mining operations of which silver is a byproduct.

One of the largest increases is expected in Mexico, where producers are projecting increases of 25% over the next four years, from 74.7 million oz.

in 1995 to 93.4 million oz. in 1999. While a significant devaluation of the peso led to a boost in profits for larger producers, many smaller producers increased output and reopened closed operations. Output was also increased as a result of investment in new gold mines and corresponding increases in byproduct silver.

U.S. producers are forecasting a 10% rise in silver production by 1999 — to 54.8 million oz., compared with 49.8 million oz. in 1995. This increase is expected to occur over a vast range of mining operations. Echo Bay Mines’ McCoy-Cove operation in Nevada, the country’s largest silver producer, is expected to close in 1999, whereas Silver Valley Resources, a company jointly owned by Coeur d’Alene and Asarco, intends to reopen the Coeur and Galena mines. Production from these mines is estimated at 3 million oz. annually.

The Green’s Creek mine in Alaska, a joint venture between Kennecott and Hecla Mining, is expected to reopen as well. Operations have been in abeyance since 1993, but production is expected to begin next year. About 10 million oz. are expected to be produced.

Canadian silver production jumped 70% in 1995, to 38.8 million from 22.8 million oz. Producers are expecting an increase of nearly 8% over the next four years, to 41.9 million oz. by 1999. In 1995, silver produced as a byproduct of gold mining accounted for the greatest increase in silver production. The opening of the Eskay Creek mine in British Columbia accounted for 9 million oz.

— From “Silver News,” published by The Silver Institute, based in Washington, D.C.