TORONTO STOCK EXCHANGE JULY 22-28

The TSX was down during the July 22-28 trading session, with the S&P-TSX Composite Index sliding 385 points, or 2.8%, to 13,304. Mining stocks did not fare any better, with the Capped Metals and Mining Index dropping 21 points, or 2.8%, to 716. The Capped Materials Index did even worse, falling 29 points, or 7.2%, to 369, on the back of a continuing drop in the oil price.

Is the commodities boom over? National Bank Financial thinks so. National Bank economist Stfane Marion notes that the CRB metals index from the Commodity Research Bureau in Chicago is down on a yearon-year basis for the first time in five years and warns that metal prices could fall by 20% — possibly accompanied by a 20-40% drop in the oil price. Clment Gignac, chief economist and strategist at National Bank, says that commodities markets will be affected by demand destruction and technological innovation. He says that exchange-traded funds (ETFs) pushed commodity prices to higher levels than commercial demand would justify and warns that “. . . the ultimate cyclical (commodities) trough may be much lower than current levels.”

Not everyone agrees with these bearish forecasts. Back in June, Art Samberg, head of Pequot Capital Management told Barron’s: “The (commodities) bubble isn’t going to burst; it’s going to continue to expand.” And in July, Theresa Gusman, head of Deutsche Asset Management’s global commodities team, said she was holding firm on commodities.

Topping the list of active issues was Aurelian Resources, which saw a friendly bid from Kinross Gold. Aurelian added $2.08 to $6.62, while Kinross fell $4.30 to $19.40. Other gold stocks were mostly down: Yamana Gold lost $1.46 to $13.04; Goldcorp dropped $4.16 to $41.97; Agnico-Eagle Mines declined $11.57 to $60.26; and Barrick Gold fell $2.91 to $45.44. Meanwhile,

Newmont Mining gained 74 to $50.41 and Eldorado Gold added 11 to $8.16. Newmont has commissioned a coal-fired power plant in Nevada, which it anticipates will save US$70-80 million per year in electricity costs.

The uranium price edged up US50 to US$64.50 per lb. uranium oxide, but uranium issues were mostly down: Denison Mines lost 74 to $6.85; Uranium One lost 22 to $3.48; and heavyweight Cameco lost $2.84 to $36.81.

Brazil-based MMX Mineracao e Metalicos crashed, losing $14.48 to $11.52 after police in the South American country launched an investigation into the company’s affairs.

TSX most active issues
		VOLUME	WEEK
		(000s)	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	CHANGE
Aurelian Res	ARU	34151	7.50	4.31	6.62	+ 2.08
Eastern Platin	ELR	31812	2.09	1.76	1.92	-0.14
Kinross Gold	K	30780	24.14	18.34	19.40	-4.30
Yamana Gold	YRI	28385	14.71	12.61	13.04	-1.46
Goldcorp	G	19877	46.85	40.08	41.97	-4.16
Barrick Gold	ABX	19154	49.80	43.26	45.44	-2.91
Blue Note Mng	BN	17844	0.10	0.07	0.07	-0.01
QGX	QGX	16995	4.90	4.15	4.81	+ 0.31
Eldorado Gold	ELD	15751	8.20	7.39	8.16	+ 0.11
Uranium One	UUU	15406	3.66	3.15	3.48	-0.22

TSX greatest percentage change
		VOLUME	WEEK
		(000s)	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	CHANGE
Aurelian Res	ARU	34151	7.50	4.31	6.62	+ 45.8
Niocan Inc	NIO	75	0.57	0.46	0.55	+ 19.5
CIC Energy	ELC	462	6.50	5.26	6.40	+ 18.7
New Dawn Mng	ND	75	0.60	0.40	0.60	+ 17.6
OceanaGold	OGC	281	0.85	0.71	0.80	+ 14.2
American Bonan	BZA	458	0.08	0.06	0.08	+ 14.2
San Anton Res	SNN	264	0.25	0.19	0.25	+ 13.6
Horizns G Bear	HGD	3618	10.20	8.11	9.55	+ 13.5
X-Cal Res	XCL	109	0.09	0.08	0.09	+ 12.5
Richview Res	RVR	612	0.09	0.07	0.09	+ 12.5
MMXMineMet	XMM	19	28.08	10.99	11.52	-55.6
Zazu Metals	ZAZ	42	0.48	0.30	0.30	-53.1
Nord Res	NRD	11	0.61	0.41	0.41	-48.7
Lydian Intl	LYD	306	0.44	0.31	0.31	-31.1
Genco Res	GGC	222	1.97	1.36	1.36	-30.2
Ursa Major Min	UMJ	41	0.41	0.38	0.40	-27.2
Yukon-Nev Gold	YNG	542	1.13	0.85	0.87	-23.0
Minera Andes	MAI	1462	1.20	0.91	0.95	-22.1
Potash One	KCL	3005	4.09	3.19	3.20	-21.7
Aquila Res	AQA	1180	0.55	0.44	0.44	-21.4

TSX greatest value change
WEEK
		VOLUME	CLOSE	CHANGE
Fording C C T	FDG_U	4195576	83.80	+ 3.75
First Quantum	FM	2248127	71.21	+ 3.56
Aurelian Res	ARU	34151065	6.62	+ 2.08
Horizns G Bear	HGD	3617694	9.55	+ 1.14
CIC Energy	ELC	462338	6.40	+ 1.01
Newmont Mng	NMC	286041	50.41	+ 0.74
Jaguar Mng	JAG	805901	10.83	+ 0.43
Corriente Res	CTQ	452307	4.40	+ 0.38
QGX	QGX	16995082	4.81	+ 0.31
Augusta Res	AZC	282297	6.68	+ 0.25
Potash Cp Sask	POT	9715532	202.42	-20.57
MMXMineMet	XMM	19295	11.52	-14.48
Agrium	AGU	10354320	86.80	-12.88
Agnico-Eagle	AEM	6635190	60.26	-11.57
Major Drilling	MDI	558295	41.65	-5.14
Labdr I-Ore Ro	LIF_U	771808	47.63	-4.52
Kinross Gold	K	30780377	19.40	-4.30
Goldcorp	G	19877318	41.97	-4.16
Horizns G Bull	HGU	5348197	23.39	-3.71
Pan Am Silver	PAA	1376043	31.70	-3.49