One way or another, energy transition factors into spring elections

Over two weeks in late May into early June, three important mining districts are going to the polls, with mining and climate change set to influence outcomes to varying degrees.

At press time, a federal election in mining-friendly Australia had already taken place. On May 21, Aussies chose a new government under Labour Party leader Anthony Albanese. The centre-left Albanese replaces Scott Morrison, who has led the Liberal Party and the ruling conservative Liberal-National coalition as prime minister since 2018.

Albanese has signalled a new climate focus for Australia, which under Morrison had the weakest climate policies of all the G20 nations, and in his victory speech, said that the nation could become a renewable energy “superpower.” 

At the same time, Albanese has said he won’t phase out coal or prevent new coal mines from opening. Australia is the world’s largest exporter of metallurgical coal and second largest producer of thermal coal.

Notably, the election saw Australia’s Green Party make headway in Queensland – a mining hub known as the nation’s most conservative state — with the Greens picking up three seats in the state capital of Brisbane.

The eastern seaboard state, along with neighbouring New South Wales and Victoria, bore the brunt of wildfires that burned through 115,000 sq. km in the region from mid-2019 to early 2020. The “Greenslide” in Brisbane, and the election of “teal” independents calling for climate action in other cities, indicates that voters are still reeling from the impact of the “Black Summer,” as well as more recent severe flooding.

On May 29, another major coal exporter, Colombia, will hold a first-round presidential election that could see the country’s first-ever leftist president win power.

 Polls put Gustavo Petro, a senator and former mayor of Bogota, ahead of his rivals. In second place is Federico Gutierrez, a centre-right former mayor of Medellin and civil engineer by training; and in third, Rodolfo Hernández, an independent who has promised to crack down on corruption and proposes to legalize cocaine. Pollsters believe the vote will be close, resulting in a run-off second-round vote in June.

Before entering politics, Petro was once a guerilla with the M-19 rebel group — notorious for its siege of the Supreme Court in 1985 that ended in more than 90 deaths when the government tried to recapture the site by force. The group later became a political party. Petro’s current campaign is focused on reducing poverty, protecting the environment, and building a decarbonized, knowledge-based economy. He has also proposed ending oil and gas exploration in the country and outlawing open pit mining.

There’s just one problem: fossil fuels are core to Colombia’s economy, with oil and gas currently accounting for 40% of foreign direct investment and 55% of its total exports, while the nation is the fifth-largest coal exporter globally. 

Ahead of the vote, the Colombian Mining Association (ACM) announced that it expects the mining sector to contribute a record 8.8 trillion pesos (US$2.2 billion) to the country this year through taxes and royalties. The figure represents a 69% increase over 2021 due largely to rising coal and nickel prices.

In a May press conference, ACM President Juan Camilo Nariño sought to remind citizens and the presidential candidates of the importance of mining to the energy transition. “Colombia and the world cannot live without mining,” he said, according to a Reuters report. “There is no chance that the greener world we all want to see will happen without more mining.”

In Ontario, voters will head to the polls on June 2.

 Like Australia’s Morrison, Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government has lagged on climate change, even rolling back climate friendly policies and commitments the previous Liberal government had put in place. However, climate change hasn’t been a galvanizing force in Ontario (where coal is neither mined nor part of the nuclear-dominated energy mix), with voters more concerned about the rising cost of living.

At press time, Ford was on track for another majority government with 35.7% support, according to CBC News’ Poll Tracker. Steven Del Duca’s Liberals were second with 27.7% support, Andrea Horwath’s New Democrats third at 24.1% and Mike Schreiner’s Green Party at 6.7%.

In a sign that, at least in Canada, mining is finally being explicitly recognized as key to the energy transition, none of the three major parties can be construed as anti-mining, based on their platforms or leaders’ statements during the campaign, which kicked off on May 3.

(Horwath, during the May 10 northern issues leaders’ debate invoked support for local processing and refining of minerals for the jobs it would create — a comment that could have been uttered by any of the three major party leaders. All of them also support development of the Ring of Fire.) 

While Ford has not prioritized climate action, he has recently focused on the jobs and economic benefits that the energy transition could bring to the province through manufacturing of electric vehicles and the development of a local battery supply chain. In March, the government committed $513 million to help automaker Stellantis invest in building EVs locally. It also unveiled its critical minerals strategy, pledging $29 million in investment — mostly through the Ontario Junior Mining Exploration Program — with $5 million set aside for a new Critical Minerals Innovation Fund. And it has provided support to Electra Battery Materials and its cobalt refinery in northern Ontario, as well as a study on the viability of a new battery materials park.

Many of these announcements have come just this year (well behind similar investments Quebec has made) and don’t constitute a comprehensive plan for Ontario to become a leader in EV development and manufacturing or to fight climate change. Rather than any particular commitment by the government to anything beyond job-creation, the announcements signal that the energy transition —even if not a voting issue — can’t be ignored.