Army gives glimmer of hope for Pebble copper-gold project in Alaska 

The United States Army is improving the slim odds for the Northern Dynasty Minerals (TSX: NDM; NYSE: NAK) Pebble project in southwest Alaska which has already been blocked by environmental authorities.  

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, which has its own approvals process for what would be North America’s largest mine with a 600-metre-deep pit, said Apr. 25 it will take another look at its refusal in 2020 to approve the project after Northern Dynasty successfully appealed the decision. The corps has to report back in 45 days.  

“We have been saying that the record of decision process was not fairly conducted since 2020 and are pleased to see that the review officer has raised similar concerns,” Ron Thiessen, president and CEO of Northern Dynasty, said in a news release on Monday. “This remand decision is a strong win for the project because it brings these issues to light and directs the district to address them, potentially setting the stage for a much different outcome.” 

BMO Capital Markets agreed on Monday in a note about items Northern Dynasty appealed when the corps ruled against the gold, copper and molybdenum project 380 km southwest of Anchorage. 

“These include possible inconsistencies in the evaluation of a compensatory mitigation plan and possible inconsistencies in weighing the benefits vs. detriments of developing Pebble,” mining analyst Andrew Mikitchook wrote. “Correcting the remanded issues could have a meaningful impact on the overall permitting decision.” 

At issue this time in the decades-long struggle to develop the project forecast to generate US$1.7 billion in annual revenue is whether Northern Dynasty was allowed to adjust its comprehensive mitigation plan with public feedback, and if the corps ruled wrongly on the project’s tailings storage.  

Thiessen argues the company wasn’t given proper instruction, feedback or time to change its mitigation plan to meet requirements, which in turn could potentially prompt the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s to reverse its decision to reject the project. That refusal was based on concerns the project would breach the Clean Water Act and hurt the world’s largest sockeye salmon fishery at Bristol Bay.  

He also noted the corps’ review said it had been wrong to consider potential catastrophic impacts of a tailings storage facility failure as a reason for its permit denial after the Final Environmental Impact Study (FEIS) had found the tailings storage design didn’t present any reasonably foreseeable failure risks. 

Zigzags

Northern Dynasty says it is considering how to challenge the EPA’s ruling in court. The Army Engineers review could give it ammunition. It marks another zigzag in the project that began as a discovery in the late 1980s by what now is Teck Resources (TSX: TECK; NYSE: TECK).  

There have been a series of studies, permits, refusals and appeals for the project since Northern Dynasty took control in 2001. The company even appealed successfully against the EPA more than a decade ago. This year’s EPA ruling barred the project from depositing waste material within the local watershed, effectively cancelling it. But if the tailings storage design is indeed sound, that could undermine the EPA’s stance.  

“The EPA in its final determination specifically refers to the risk of tailings failure to justify its decision, despite the FEIS saying that this is not reasonably foreseeable,” Thiessen said. “This contradiction will need to be explained.”  

However, President Joe Biden has called Bristol Bay, which is home to a US$2.2-billion-a-year salmon fishery, “no place for a mine.” His administration has blocked other mines, such as the Antofagasta (LSE: ANTO) Twin Metals project in Minnesota, despite the loud cry for more critical minerals projects to challenge Chinese dominance and promote the country’s transformation to green energy to fight climate change.  

Pebble has measured and indicated resources of 6.5 billion tonnes grading 0.4% copper, 0.34 gram gold per tonne, 240 parts per million (ppm) molybdenum, 1.7 grams silver per tonne and 0.41 ppm rhenium, for 57 billion lb. of copper, 70.6 million oz. gold, 3.4 billion lb. molybdenum and 345 million oz. of silver.  

Shares in Northern Dynasty gained 3.5% on Monday to 30¢ each, within a 52-week range of 28¢ to 46¢, valuing the company at $158.6 million.