Better ways than Kyoto

The Kyoto Accord is not the best way to fight global warming, says renowned Danish scientist Bjorn Lomborg, who spoke at the annual convention of the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada, held in Toronto in March.

An associate professor of statistics in the political science department of the University of Arhus, Lomborg believes Kyoto will cost a vast amount of money that will do little to ameliorate climatic conditions, and that the cash could be better spent elsewhere.

The world will spend $1.5-3.5 billion annually on Kyoto through to 2099, he estimates, noting that just one year’s expenditure could provide everyone on Earth with sanitation and clean water.

Rather, the money should be spent improving conditions in developing countries, which will suffer the most from climate change because of their weak infrastructures.

A former student member of Greenpeace, Lomborg rose to world prominence when he wrote The Skeptical Environmentalist. In it, he examines a range of major environmental issues.

Combining humour and statistical analysis, he told the PDAC convention audience that the prevailing belief that the global environment is bad and getting worse is not true. In fact, things are getting better, he said, but the belief that things are not improving is causing a “gun-to-the-head” type of reaction, resulting in flawed and costly decisions such as Kyoto.

There are problems, he said, but they are fewer and smaller than people believe. One of the widespread myths is the belief that air is getting worse.

He used London, England, to prove his point. Particles and sulphur dioxide in the city’s air increased from 1585 until 1890, and then began to decline. Today pollution is below 1585 levels.

“Most people think air pollution is a new problem getting worse,” he said. “It’s not true. It’s an old problem getting better. London air today is as clean as it was in medieval times.”

However, although air quality has improved in the developed world, in the developing world it is getting worse, Lomborg said, and this will continue until the regions experience economic growth. Then, following the pattern of the developed world, pollution will start to decline.

— The preceding is an excerpt from In Brief, a quarterly publication of the Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada.