Election decisions

Americans will troop to the polling booths in early November, and expectations are that Canadians will be marking ballots in a federal election a few weeks later. But unlike the U.S., where presidential candidates George W. Bush and Al Gore are running neck-and-neck in the polls, Jean Chrtien’s Liberals are poised to win a third majority government if, as expected, an election is called for Nov. 27.

The latest poll found that 45% of decided voters would cast their ballots for the Liberals. The Canadian Alliance under its new leader, Stockwell Day, would attract about 26%, while the Conservatives, New Democrats and Bloc Qubcois would share the remaining ballots almost equally. It’s a cakewalk for Chrtien, relative to the U.S., where Bush, the Republican nominee, and Gore, the Democrat, are battling hard for the few percentage points that separate them. In the American race, every single vote counts. And if that means candidates must get touchy-feely on Oprah or play the saxophone on late night talk shows to win the day, so be it. Television and politics have been inseparable since John F. Kennedy out-finessed Richard Nixon during the first of televised presidential debates, in the early 1960s.

American pundits say the tight presidential race reflects a sea-change in American politics. The Republican and Democratic parties are less polarized than they have been for decades. Democrats are becoming fiscal conservatives and Republicans are morphing into “compassionate” conservatives. Both parties have staked the middle ground, where they are battling for the hearts and minds of an aging, increasingly conservative population.

The scenario is similar in Canada . . . or was until recently. Jean Chrtien won two elections by taking a page from U.S. President Bill Clinton. He pushed his left-leaning Liberals to the right on fiscal matters and, along with Finance Minister Paul Martin, cut spending and eventually balanced the books, which had been bleeding red for decades. The economy improved and the Canadian government is now enjoying huge surpluses, just as in the U.S.

However, with good times comes temptation. The Liberals have long been a tax-and-spend party, much like the Democrats were before Clinton upset the old dynamic. The question voters on both sides of the border must now ask themselves is: Will the pendulum swing back if the incumbent parties are re-elected? — or, to phrase it differently, can the left-of-centre parties be trusted to stay on the right course, or are they likely to revert back to their old ways?

In the U.S., Gore is promoting himself as the custodian of Clinton’s economic legacy. Yet, at the same time, he is courting the party’s left wing, which is aching for its return from the wilderness. The same is true for the left-wingers in Canada’s Liberal Party: the fiscal discipline imposed by the deficit kept them firmly in line during the government’s first five years, but now they are eyeing the growing budget surplus and making spending plans.

If recent developments are any indication, the Liberals may indeed be positioning themselves for a return to their old free-spending ways. Paul Martin — widely respected by the Canadian and international business community for his fiscal prudence — is increasingly being relegated to the sidelines. And Chrtien recently parachuted Newfoundland Premier Brian Tobin — a left-of-centre populist well-known for his anti-business biases — into the plum post of industry minister in his federal cabinet.

The announcement sent a shiver down the backs of business leaders. Tobin is the man who promised the people of Newfoundland and Labrador that he would “deliver” a deal on development of the Voisey’s Bay nickel mine, mill, smelter and refinery, along with a deal for development of the Lower Churchill Falls power project. He has failed to deliver either. His interventionist style has frightened away investment and jobs that are desperately needed in his province.

Political pundits expect Chrtien will use Tobin to attract votes in Atlantic Canada and to assume the role of “attack dog” against the upstart Canadian Alliance Party. Tobin can bark, to be sure, but for what purpose and at what cost? And why place an attack dog in a sensitive industry portfolio at a time when private, not public, money is fueling the economic boom?

Chrtien could lose support if he continues to move his party too far to the left, particularly if the economy begins to soften. Much of the Chrtien government’s success in battling the deficit is owed to a sustained burst of growth from the Canadian economy, which pushed revenues up and allowed the budget to be balanced without more severe spending cuts. If that revenue shrinks — and particularly if unemployment becomes severe — the government will have much less fiscal freeboard.

It takes a great deal more leadership to stay the course in good times than when times are bad. That will be the true test of the next president of the United States as well. Good times are fun while they last . . . but they never do.