FACTS ‘N’ FIGURES — Antimony markets open up

Sources of antimony are diversifying in the late 1990s, according to a report from a London-based metals analyst.

According to Roskill Information Services, new sources of antimony may result in greater stability for the industry as consumers reduce their dependence on Chinese material.

The industry remains vulnerable to volatile prices, while all sectors of the market are dependent on one producing country — China. With estimated mine production of 56,161 tonnes of antimony and estimated refined antimony production of 99,500 tonnes (gross weight) in 1996, China accounts for 60-70% of the world’s antimony supply. Even though sources of antimony trioxide are more diverse, producers in the U.S., France and Japan are reliant on the Chinese metal for raw material.

However, several factors — government measures, the increasing need for producers to adopt profit objectives, and increased investment in the Chinese sector by Western producers — suggest that antimony production may be more regulated in future. Output fell by 23% in 1996 and by 11% year-on-year from January to April 1997.

China’s domination will also be reduced by the development of new sources of antimony. Many of the planned expansions will be in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Russia is the second-largest mine producer after China, accounting for 14% of world output in 1996, but production of refined antimony began only in 1995. In practice, CIS output will show a slower growth than estimates of initial production suggest.

Two other projects will add to the world’s sources of antimony: Australian Gold Development’s plan to bring a 2,500 -tonne-per-year antimony plant on-stream in late 1997 and, in Canada, Roycefield Resources’ plan to open a 6,500-tonne-per-year, high-purity antimony trioxide plant in the second half of 1998. These expansions will reduce consumer dependence on China, though competition between the CIS and Chinese suppliers could exert a further downward influence on prices.

Future growth of demand for antimony will continue to depend on trends in the consumption of antimony trioxide in flame retardants, which account for 45% of world demand for primary antimony, and as much as 80% of Japanese demand for antimony trioxide.

— The preceding is an excerpt from a report entitled “The Economics of Antimony,” published by Roskill Information Services of London, England.