Gold price to reach $4,000 on central bank demand, DoubleLine’s Gundlach says

Gold added some more sparkle to the still-recovering financial markets on Friday by reaching the $3,000-an-oz. level for the first time. The die-hard bulls have long seen this coming, and some are already looking far beyond this historic milestone.

One of those is Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO and founder of Tampa-based DoubleLine which has about $93 billion under management. He told investors during a conference call last week that he believes the yellow metal could eventually reach $4,000 per ounce. The main reason, he noted, is the “very sharp, steep trajectory” at which central banks around the world are buying bullion.

Central banks are considered a major source of gold demand, and hence an important factor underpinning prices. According to data compiled by the World Gold Council, they have bought more than 1,000 tonnes of the metal for three consecutive years, and are expected to remain active in 2025.

“The sustained buying highlights the strategic importance of gold in official reserves, particularly as central banks navigate heightened geopolitical risks,” a senior research lead at WGC recently wrote. China, for example, has been adding to its gold reserves for four straight months since November.

Bond King

Gundlach, known as “The Bond King” for his success and expertise in fixed-income investing, pointed out that gold has continued on a bull market for a couple of years now ever since it went down to $1,800 an ounce.

As for his bold price forecast, the DoubeLine CEO said: “Gold will make it to $4,000. I’m not sure that’ll happen this year, but I feel like that’s the measured move anticipated by the long consolidation at around $1,800 on gold.”

By measured move the fund manager refers to a technical analysis concept where the price of an asset moves in a predictable way based on past trends. The long consolidation means that gold stayed around $1,800 per oz. for a long time, building a strong base before breaking higher. The base gives gold the potential to continue rising towards $4,000 as part of a natural price movement.

While Gundlach’s prediction may be too far ahead, less ambitious forecasts could still be attainable this year. Analysts at Macquarie led by Marcus Garvey last week updated their price outlook and are now expecting gold to reach $3,500 an oz. as soon as the third quarter.