Morningstar sees gold falling to $1,820 by 2030

Despite gold’s record-breaking rallies and banks doubling down on their bullish price forecasts, one analyst has a contrarian take on where the precious metal stands long term.

According to David Sekera, Morningstar’s chief U.S. market strategist, gold could eventually fall back down to around $1,820 an ounce, a level last seen in October 2023.

This prediction, Sekera said in a BNN Bloomberg TV interview this week, follows an analysis by the firm’s equity research team into the long-term supply and demand of the metal, taking into consideration the extraction cost of gold over the next five years.

The impact of some factors pushing gold higher are waning, such as real interest rates, he said. Inflation, which is often linked to rising gold prices, should moderate in the U.S., Sekera said. It’s projected to drop to the Federal Reserve’s target by the end of 2025 and going into 2026.

Sekera’s call comes on the back of gold setting a new record of $3057.31 per oz. on Wednesday, after U.S. policymakers projected slower growth and higher inflation in the country. Gold has climbed by 16% in 2025, extending its run from last year.

Demand-supply dynamics

In explaining his bearish view on gold, the Morningstar strategist cited an old adage in the commodity space: the cure for high prices is high prices.

He predicted lower gold demand, noting that half of the metal’s production is for jewelry, where buyers are expected to substitute it for other metals in the coming years. Also, about 10-15% of gold is used for industries, and again, in these cases, manufacturers are expected to substitute into other materials to save costs, Sekera added.

On the supply side, Sekera said he expects new mines to enter production, though he said it may take a couple of years for these projects to come online and for new reserves to be added.

Cost-cutting measures being carried out by the newly created DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) under the Trump administration should also affect commodity prices by reducing government spending, Sekera said.

The $1,820 price target will be for the next four to five years, he emphasized.