Steel markets shifting East

By the year 2000, four of the world’s 10 largest steel markets will be outside the OECD compared to seven out of 10 in 1973, according to a long-term steel forecast put out by Chase Econometrics, a subsidiary of The Chase Manhattan Bank.

Three of those four non-OECD markets — China, India and South Korea — will be in the Far East. The United Kingdom will be displaced from the top 10 altogether.

The forecast includes the following forecast of national steel markets in the year 2000 compared to 1973:

1973 2000

1 U.S.A. 149.6 1 China 134 +100

2 Japan 89.3 2 U.S.A. 94 -56

3 W. Germany 40.4 3 Japan 72 -17

4 China 33.6 4 India 32 +26

5 France 25.3 5 W. Germany 31 -9

6 U.K. 24.9 6 Brazil 9 +20

7 Italy 22.6 7 South Korea 25 +22

8 Canada 14.2 8 Italy 22 -0.5

9 Spain 10.7 9 Canada 15 +1 10 Brazil 9.5 10 France 15 -10 “The world market for steel will continue to shift r apidly toward the developing countries,” says John Jacobson, director of the U.S. and World Steel Service for the forecasting company.

“In the advanced industrialized countries the demand for steel has levelled off, and in many areas is actually declining.”

“In the first place, the building of railroads, highways and cities is essentially complete in countries like the United States and Japan. And since those advanced industrialized economies will be growing only half as fast as newly industrialized economies like Brazil and South Korea, their expenditures on plant, equipment and other steel- intensive capital equipment will be relatively stagnant.

“Finally, most of the advanced industrialized countries have levelled off in population and their markets for consumer durables such as automobiles and home appliances have reached a saturation point.

“In the Third World, on the other hand, the need for infrastructure development and for capital goods is both strong and growing, and the appetite for consumer durables is practically limitless. As a result, steel demand in Brazil, for instance, will surpass demand in Canada and the United Kingdom by 1988, will move past France in 1989 and Italy in 1994.”