TORONTO STOCK EXCHANGE AUG. 19-25

The S&P-TSX Composite Index rose during the Aug. 19-25 trading session, on the back of strengthening oil and gold prices, gaining 170 points, or 1.3%, to 13,289. Mining and materials issues did even better, with the Capped Metals and Mining Index moving up 33 points, or 4.8%, to 711, and the Capped Materials Index adding 13 points, or 4%, to 339.

National Bank believes that the global slowdown will have a negative effect on commodities. National economist Paul-Andr Pinsonnault is bearish on oil, for example, pointing to downside risks to energy prices in the coming months as commodities fall victim to weakening economic growth in a number of regions. His colleague, Stfane Marion, believes that oil consumption in China will decelerate in 2009, because of the influence of the global slowdown. He predicts oil demand growth next year will be lower than the 1% forecasted by the International Energy Agency.

Clment Gignac, National Bank’s chief economist and strategist, shares a similar view. He says that an economic stimulus package recently announced by Chinese vice-premier Li Keqiang “. . . underscores the fact that the so-called decoupling Asian-U. S. story evoked by the bullish camp members on commodities is under a serious stress test.” Meanwhile, Gignac does not rule out an economic recovery in the U. S., despite ongoing financial sector consolidation.

The CPM Group, a New York City-based commodities consultant, is taking the long view. While acknowledging the current weakness in the commodities markets, it does not believe that commodity prices have peaked. Instead, CPM says this is just a pause, caused by recession.

A number of commodity sectors that declined sharply in July and August staged a rebound during the trading session. Gold issues were up, on the back of a rebound in the gold price. The fertilizer sector has also gained altitude, recouping some of its recent losses. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan advanced $4.96 to $186.10, while Agrium rose $2.94 to $88.51.

Coal issues participated in the general advance, with Hillsborough Resources, Cline Mining and Homeland Energy all moving up. CIC Energy broke ranks, losing 45 to $3.95. CIC has been unable to secure a fixed-price contract for its planned coal complex in Botswana, so it is considering a scaled-down power generating plant.

The uranium sector was mixed. Heavyweight Cameco was unchanged at $30.46 after falling in recent weeks following water seepage problems on its Cigar Lake project. Mid-tier producer Denison Mines gained 36 to $5.94, while fellow miner Uranium One lost 21 to $3.52 after Bloomberg reported that South Africa may decide to limit uranium exports. Energy Fuels rose 10 to 63, while Uranerz Energy declined 22 to $1.93.

Eastern Platinum added 24 to $1.58 after reporting quarterly results on Aug. 14.

TSX most active issues
		VOLUME		WEEK
		(000s)	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	CHANGE
Eastern Platin	ELR	46196	1.65	1.25	1.58	+ 0.24
Yamana Gold	YRI	33663	12.10	10.48	11.40	+ 0.65
Goldcorp	G	20828	37.25	31.73	35.16	+ 2.83
Kinross Gold	K	18999	18.26	16.06	17.18	+ 0.75
Barrick Gold	ABX	18910	38.16	34.49	36.08	+ 1.02
Breakwater Res	BWR	17101	0.28	0.23	0.26	0.00
SherrittIntl	S	14967	9.90	9.01	9.25	+0.09
Lundin Mng	LUN	14331	5.45	4.78	5.05	+ 0.19
Uranium One	UUU	12949	3.85	3.50	3.52	-0.21
Sprott Res	SCP	11789	3.76	2.98	3.32	+ 0.19

TSX greatest percentage change
		VOLUME		WEEK
		(000s)	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	CHANGE
Strategic Res	SRZ	2324	0.17	0.08	0.14	+ 75.0
Cline Mng	CMK	2261	1.02	0.64	0.90	+ 38.4
Hillsborough	HLB	2570	0.94	0.59	0.84	+ 35.4
Zazu Metals	ZAZ	4404	0.35	0.17	0.27	+ 35.0
Homeland Enrgy	HEG	2598	1.05	0.67	0.97	+ 34.7
Birch Mountn	BMD	346	0.23	0.15	0.20	+ 33.3
Starfield Res	SRU	1665	0.92	0.67	0.91	+ 31.8
Timminco	TIM	10514	16.89	12.07	15.90	+ 29.4
Yukon-Nev Gold	YNG	5776	0.25	0.12	0.18	+ 28.5
Excellon Res	EXN	1082	1.18	0.83	1.13	+ 28.4
Asbestos Corp	AB	215	1.25	0.55	0.55	-56.0
Brazilian Diam	BDY	460	0.05	0.02	0.02	-33.3
Bannerman Res	BAN	544	0.82	0.60	0.60	-33.3
Copper Mesa	CUX	267	0.08	0.05	0.05	-28.5
Orsu Metals wt	OSU_T	16	0.03	0.03	0.03	-25.0
Volta Res	VTR	404	0.30	0.22	0.22	-21.4
Diamond Fields	DFI	415	0.05	0.04	0.04	-20.0
Cancor Mines	KCR	16	0.14	0.12	0.12	-20.0
Arehada Mining	AHD	70	0.25	0.20	0.20	-20.0
Minco Silver	MSV	289	2.35	1.60	1.85	-18.8

TSX greatest value change
WEEK
		VOLUME	CLOSE	CHANGE
Potash Cp Sask	POT	5482982	186.10	+ 4.96
Agnico-Eagle	AEM	4860335	59.85	+ 4.91
Timminco	TIM	10514162	15.90	+ 3.62
Inmet Mining	IMN	925911	61.75	+ 3.21
Agrium	AGU	5214781	88.51	+ 2.94
Goldcorp	G	20828337	35.16	+ 2.83
Teck Comin B	TCKB	10410067	41.46	+ 2.51
Teck Comin A	TCKA	15845	42.91	+ 1.91
Franco-Nevada	FNV	1580103	20.21	+ 1.59
Western Areas	WSA	104100	8.49	+ 1.49
Labdr I-Ore Ro	LIF_U	333129	50.52	-3.49
Detour Gold	DGC	1687076	12.55	-1.95
Horizns G Bear	HGD	3330251	12.27	-1.17
Seabridge Gold	SEA	72055	15.39	-0.85
Katanga Mng	KAT	319464	9.31	-0.72
Asbestos Corp	AB	214600	0.55	-0.70
Faircourt Gold	FGX	20700	6.90	-0.48
Osisko Mng	OSK	1624718	3.08	-0.47
CIC Energy	ELC	301081	3.95	-0.45
Minco Silver	MSV	289467	1.85	-0.43