What to expect from CAR election

After much delay the citizens of the Central African Republic (CAR) have placed their votes for the next president of the much-maligned country. But the implications for miners in the region are still unclear. 

Francois Bozize, the current president, is favoured to win with poll results due on Jan. 31. Even if he should, onlookers say stability won’t come easily to the landlocked nation, which sits just north of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

“The outlook overall is fairly grim,” Roddy Barclay, an analyst with Control Risk, says in a phone interview from London. “I think the election will be more of a challenge than an opportunity as we are unlikely to see any significant improvement… weak state institutions and corruption will continue to characterize the country.”

Barclay also points out the opposition parties are already arguing that voter’s lists have been completed only recently and that they have had merely two weeks to campaign.

“Bozize has all the benefits of incumbency and he is controlling the electoral process,” Barclay says. Although the president has broadened his political base by bringing former rebels in as his advisors.

Despite that move, Bozize’s government is seen as maintaining control over the south western and south central parts of the country – areas that surround the capital, Bangui.

Toronto-based gold junior, Axmin (AXM-V) has its Passendro gold project located in the country’s south-central region, and has not reported any difficulties with rebel groups over its many years of operating in the CAR. The company is currently in the midst of updating its feasibility study on Passendro as it looks to drive the project into production.

South Africa-based Randgold Resources (GOLD-Q, RRS-L) and France-based Areva, also have interests in the country.

The former French colony of 4.6 million people is rich in gold, uranium and diamonds.

As for positives that an election could bring, Barclay was cautious with his optimism.

“The best-case scenario is that there is no major violence and that Bozize wins by a large enough margin that challenges are silenced out and he can continue with security sector reform,” he says. “It will be crucial for him to impose governance outside of Bangui.”

Barclay frames the worse-case scenario as having a shambolic election followed by numerous challenges and an armed coup.

While he says such a scenario can’t be entirely ruled out, he believes the chances of it occurring are low.

“Most likely what will happen is that the country will muddle through messy challenges with vocal opposition saying the government is not credible,” he says.

Bozize seized power in 2003 through a coup, and then was elected to the office in 2005.

While there is a total of five presidential candidates, only two are considered legitimate contenders: Ange Felix Patasse and Martin Ziguele.

Patasse was the president who was ousted by Bozize in 2003, while Ziguele served as Patasse’s prime minister and ran against Bozize in the last election.

Patasse has only recently returned from exile.

If none of the three men wins an outright majority in the first round, a second will be held in March.

The elections have been delayed three times and were supposed to occur last April. The delays were blamed on a lack of financing and interference from rebel groups.