Who’ll control Iran’s uranium?

Large, controlled explosions are everyday occurrences in the world’s mines, but it’s been a while since a mine has been the target of a major military attack.

That may change in the next few years as the Islamic Republic of Iran pushes forward with its plans to mine, mill and enrich its own uranium to bomb-grade status in defiance of Western governments, especially those of the U.S. and Israel.

Led by new president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (who recently referred to Israel as a “disgraceful stain in the Islamic world,” and agreed with a statement he attributed to Ayatollah Khomeini that Israel must be “wiped off the map”), the Iranian government announced in January that it will have “peaceful nuclear technology very soon.”

A key part of the Iranian government’s nuclear plan is to mine uranium from two sources within the country: at Saghand in central Iran’s Kavir desert, 185 km northeast of the city of Yazd; and at Gehine in southern Iran, north of the Strait of Hormuz, near Bandar Abbas.

Following their discovery of uranium ore at Saghand in 1985, Iranian government geologists, with help from their Chinese counterparts, completed detailed exploration on the property in 1994. Russians helped the Iranians with a feasibility study in 1997, and delineated a reported 1.6 million tonnes of reserves grading 0.0533% uranium, or 842 tonnes of uranium.

The reserves are contained in two zones that are now accessible from two 350-metre deep shafts and connected by a 700-metre tunnel. There will also be some open-pit mining of one zone.

(At one time, the Argentina’s National Institute for Applied Research had an US$18-million contract to build uranium processing facilities at Saghand, but the Argentine government withdrew from the project in 1992 under U.S. pressure. China then stepped in to help complete the plant and assist with further prospecting. Other countries chipping in their nuclear expertise over the years included West Germany, Czechoslovakia and Hungary.)

Mining at Saghand — if it’s not already secretly under way — is scheduled to begin sometime this year at an annual rate of 120,000 tonnes, producing around 50-60 tonnes of uranium per year.

Lower-grade ore would be heap-leached, while higher-grade ore would be trucked westwards to a mill located 35 km north of the city of Ardkan, where it would be upgraded to yellowcake.

Meanwhile at Gehine, a uranium mining and milling complex has been operational since July 2004, with a capacity to produce 24 tonnes of yellowcake annually.

Uranium grades there are reportedly low, but amenable to open-pit mining.

Other downstream nuclear installations in the country include the Isfahan conversion plant (where yellowcake is to be converted to uranium-hexafluoride gas), the underground and fortified Natanz centrifuge-enrichment facility in central Iran, and a research reactor in Tehran.

Other reactors in Iran capable of producing bomb-grade plutonium are the Russian-supplied Bushehr reactor on the Persian Gulf, and Arak, southwest of Tehran.

If it does produce bomb-grade plutonium, Iran could transport its nuclear payload several thousand kilometres using its Shahab 3, Shahab 4 or X-55 missiles.

Ahmadinejad is steadfast in his determination to develop Iran’s nuclear capability, and appears to have the most vocal Iranians onside. Large crowds attending a recent Ahmadinejad speech in Tehran’s Azadi (Freedom) Square chanted, “Nuclear energy is our indisputable right” in between chants of “Death to America,” “Death to Israel” and “Death to Denmark.”

On the other side, it’s unlikely that George W. Bush wants to go down in history as the U.S. president who stood by while Iran succeeded in developing nuclear weapons that could threaten Israel.

And with its successful bombing raid on Saddam Hussein’s French-built Osirak nuclear reactor in 1981, Israel has already shown its willingness to act decisively and alone.

In the coming years, it’s certainly plausible that U.S. and/or Israeli forces may wipe out Iran’s uranium mines and processing facilities with a multi-pronged attack combining aerial bombardment and the insertion of special forces.